Documents

From time to time, DimWatt responds to consultations by government and others. Submissions relating to this campaign are posted here.



A Stark Warning from Germany
Written by Hugh Sharman   
Wednesday, 01 February 2012

We are grateful to Dipl Ing Michael Limburg, editor at http://www.eike-klima-energie.eu/ for his kind permission to post this seminal piece on Germany.

For those of you who think our desire to campaign for rescinding the Climate Change Act and the rejection of the 20-20-15 commitment is unnecessary hyperbole, we must recall that the German Renewable Energy Law (the EEG) has only been in place since 2000. 

It is the legal instrument that (so far) has taken probably upward of €100 billion so far (and counting) out of German consumers' pockets to fund those parts of the energy scheme described in this paper.  The systems are clearly almost impossible to integrate into Germany's system without further huge expenditure.

To "balance" this, we attach the responsible Minister Gabriel's much glossier 2007 publication, informing us all what a splendid success it had all been (until 2008). 

Our UK readers can decide for yourselves which of the two viewpoints are most convincing and whether we have any reason to be complacent that "British fudge" will moderate the rate of spending "required" by strict conformity to the Climate Change Act and the 20-20-15 targets.  We, at DimWatt, believe that any attempt to fudge UK developments will be pinned to the wall by Blair's children, the legal eager-beavers who have every intention to use the law to sabotage nuclear energy developments

see http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/2140258/legal-challenge-threatens-uks-nuclear-plans

The same lobby has already this year demonstrated the power to use the law in rolling back the UK Government's attempt to control the rate of spending on solar feed-in tariffs.

Please let us all take a good, hard look at Germany, which is adhering strictly to the laws that will almost certainly strangle its enormous industrial success! Then draw your own conclusions about what must be done in the UK!

 

EIKE Die Enegiewende - English.docx (387.2 kB)

EIKE Die Enegiewende - English.pdf (406.29 kB)

eeg_success_brochure_engl.pdf (2.61 MB)

 
Ground-breaking French Study should stop further expenses on the so-called super-grid
Written by Hugh Sharman   
Sunday, 18 December 2011

The purpose of the "super-grid", of which in a very small way the new Irish inter-connector is an example, is that wind power (and PV) surpluses in one part of Europe will find value and be exported to other parts of Europe where and whenever there is a dearth.

Hubert Flocard's comprehensive analysis (download here) shows the extent to which the whole concept is invalid. His empirical analysis across all Western Europe, shows that wind power peaks and troughs are pretty much simultaneous.  It is disappointing that the EU-sponsored "Trade winds" study, commissioned to promote the idea, did not pick up on this perfectly obvious flaw.

Flocard's sources are quoted on his first slide.  His data are excellent.  Incidentally, It is much easier to obtain historical data on wind output patterns on the sites mentioned than any in the UK.

His work is not the only empirical analysis of this subject.  Paul-Frederik Bach's previous study (download here), showed in detail how closely aligned and correlated Danish and Germany wind power output is.

We at DimWatt very much regret this finding because the super-grid sounds so ...umm... "super".  But before the EU or their constituent members sink too much treasure and hope into the idea, DimWatt urges them to revisit the assumptions of the promoters. 

Hope is no substitute for uncomfortable fact, as current events in the financial world seem to be proving all too clearly.

 

Flocard&Co-111210_EuropeanWind (1).ppt (2.82 MB)

wind_power_geographical_distribution_2009.pdf (295.17 kB)

 
International Wind Power Observations 2010
Written by Paul-Frederik Bach   
Saturday, 30 July 2011
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In 2009 Renewable the Energy Foundation in London commissioned a study on operating conditions and spot market behaviour in Denmark for the years 2006 to 2008. During the work it was realized that German wind power and spot market data had to be included.

At the end of 2008 the installed wind power capacity was 3.3 GW in Denmark and 25.7 GW in Germany. It was a main result of the study that there is a high positive correlation between wind power variations in Denmark and Germany. The spot prices also have a high positive correlation in the two countries, but spot prices do not only depend on wind power, but on several other factors. Insufficient interconnector capacity due to poor transmission performance and restricted congestion policies plays an important role.

The study was based on three data surveys for the years 2006, 2007 and 2008. The author wants to extend the observations to a longer period and to a larger geographical area. Therefore data surveys for 2009 and 2010 have been added.

Statistical Survey 2010 includes Denmark, the four German system operators and Ireland (including Northern Ireland).

It is increasingly important to study wind power behaviour in Great Britain, but extracting relevant British data is more complicated than for the other countries. After the completion of the survey for 2010 time series for British wind power output were found. Selected results for the four countries are presented and analysed in a supplement, Enlarged Wind Power Statistics 2010.

icon Statistical Survey 2010 (2.8 MB)

icon Enlarged Wind Power Statistics 2010 (966.64 kB)

The author

Paul-Frederik Bach has more than 40 years experience in power system planning. He worked with grid and generation planning at ELSAM, the coordinating office for west Danish power stations, until 1997. As Planning Director at Eltra, Transmission System Operator in West Denmark, he was in charge of West Denmark's affiliation to the Nordic spot market for electricity, Nord Pool, in 1999. Until retirement in 2005 his main responsibility was the integration of wind power into the power grid in Denmark. He is still active as a consultant with interest in safe and efficient integration of wind power.

 
New paper for The John Muir Trust debunks wind power myths
Written by Hugh Sharman   
Friday, 08 April 2011
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We are pleased to post a new paper written for the John Muir Trust by the Stuart Young Consultancy.  The wind industry makes much of "debunking the myths" of wind farm objectors.  However, in doing this it has formulated a mythology of its own.  Among its many claims, the industry claims.

  1. Wind turbines will generate on average 30% of their rated capacity over a year.
  2. The wind is always blowing somewhere."
  3. Periods of widespread low wind are infrequent.
  4. The probability of very low wind output coinciding with peak electricity demand is slight.
  5. Pumped storage hydro can fill the generation gap during prolonged low wind periods.


Stuart Young takes each of these assertions and using impeccable (and public) sources of information, demolishes them with facts.  The capacity factor of the UK's wind fleet during 2010 was a shocking 21.14%.  It is time that private investors examine the prospectus on which they made investments in wind farms and DECC officials revise sharply downward their expectation for how wind power can replace diminishing fossil reserves and the cost of doing this.

To download and read Mr Young's ground-breaking report click on the link below

icon StuartYongREPORT (941.92 kB)

 
European Wind Power – a good business opportunity for Norway
Written by Hugh Sharman   
Wednesday, 16 February 2011
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We are pleased to publish Paul-Frederik Bach's article "European Wind Power – a good business opportunity for Norway" which recently appeared under a different heading at The Oil Drum, at http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7404.

 

Paul-Frederik (http://pfbach.dk/ ) has more than 40 years experience in power system planning. He worked with grid and generation planning at ELSAM, the coordinating office for west Danish power stations, until 1997. As Planning Director at Eltra, Transmission System Operator in West Denmark, he was in charge of West Denmark's affiliation to the Nordic spot market for electricity, Nord Pool, in 1999. Until retirement in 2005 his main responsibility was the integration of wind power into the power grid in Denmark. He is still active as a consultant with interest in safe and efficient integration of wind power.

Our primary interest at DimWatt is to secure timely and economic power capacity within the UK, as so much old generating capacity is retired or simply wears out.

In this article, Paul-Frederik sees the Norwegians capitalizing on the lack of large-scale affordable energy storage in NW Europe as stochastic energy resources like wind (and PV) expands and becomes a significant supplier of Europe's electricity.

By the time it is built, some time after 2016, the UK is likely to see the proposed 1600 MW inter-connector between Norway and the UK as a source of affordable, clean and reliable electricity rather than as a "wind battery".  But if wind power expands as greatly and as fast as National Grid expect in their presentation dated 15th February (shttp://www.nationalgrid.com/NR/rdonlyres/CBB087D7-94E4-4CC0-A5DA-3ED795CF4D40/45414/Wind_Power_Forecasting.pdf )

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Then of course, huge amounts of storage will have to be built, also in the UK.

There is a snag in all this.  From time to time, Norway's reservoirs are drained faster than they are replenished. Norway is suffering an historic drought during 2011 and the trauma of this event is likely to make the Norwegians wary of over-committing to being a supplier of the last resort to the UK later this decade.

icon NorwayAsWindBattery (160.11 kB)

 
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