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Here, you will find occasional articles or other publications relevant to the topic.



Oil prices and recession
Written by Euan Mearns   
Monday, 06 June 2011

Originaly posted on TheOilDrum

Over the past 50 years, when oil prices moved up sharply, causing inflation, or remained high with annual average price around $100, recession has followed in many OECD countries (see example for UK below the fold). As of 24th May 2011 the annual running average for Brent was $91.33.

The key questions are: 1) Has the world economy adapted to higher energy prices that may enable oil prices to go higher than the 2008 spike? or 2) Is the weakened world economy more vulnerable to higher energy prices?

With USA debt at its legal ceiling, QEII (US quantitative easing) due to expire at the end of June, the Portugal, Ireland, Greece sovereign debt crisis deepening in Europe, consumer goods inflation taking root in the UK and other countries and deep public spending cuts impacting OECD economies, a period of great uncertainty lies ahead.

 

Figure 1 Daily Brent oil prices in red and the annual running average in blue. On current trajectory, the annual average will reach $100 / bbl this Fall. Is the recent spike the new top of the oil price cycle? Or has the World economy adapted to high energy prices? Daily oil price data from the EIA.

Figure 1 Daily Brent oil prices in red and the annual running average in blue. On current trajectory, the annual average will reach $100 / bbl this Fall. Is the recent spike the new top of the oil price cycle? Or has the World economy adapted to high energy prices? Daily oil price data from the EIA.

 
Can shale gas save the day?
Written by Hugh Sharman   
Monday, 30 May 2011

Few DimWatt readers will disagree that the UK must remain dependent on fossil fuel until such time as we can persuade investors to overcome the barriers to new nuclear which “environmentalists”, politicians and even the general public are erecting against this relatively safe and secure energy source.

However, even the most optimistic enthusiast for new nuclear power cannot hope to see this on line before 2020 at the earliest. If the UK can replace its existing nuclear capacity before 2030, then the UK will be doing exceptionally well.

So, until then, we will be using fossil fuel for 85% of our electricity generation, virtually all our transport energy and most of our heating needs.